Box Office: ‘Thunderbolts*’ Storming to $73M-$77M Opening, Alec Baldwin’s ‘Rust’ DOA

Logo text

Marvel’s Thunderbolts* is storming to a promising domestic opening in the $73 million to $77 million range after topping Friday’s chart with $31.5 million, including $11.5 million in Thursday previews.

The star-studded movie, led by Florence Pugh and Sebastian Stan, is kicking off the summer box office in what’s become a tradition for Kevin Feige‘s studio with only a few exceptions. The pic is winning over critics and audiences alike; Thunderbolts* boasts a glowing 95 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, making it the third-highest score for a title in the Marvel Cinematic Universe in a tie with Spider-Man: Far From Home and behind Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (98 percent) and Spider-Man: No Way Home (97 percent). It’s still early, of course, and scores can change by one or two points as the weekend wears on. And on PostTrak exit polls, audiences are giving it a rave 4.5 out of 5 stars, while it received an A- CinemaScore.

Heading into the weekend, tracking suggests the movie will open in the $70 million to $73 million range domestically and $160 million to $175 million globally, against a $180 million production budget before marketing. Word of mouth is seeing that number climb higher, although some rivals see it coming in between $72 million and $75 million.

As a comparison, Marvel’s Captain America: Brave New World had an audience RT score of 92 percent when opening to $88.8 million earlier this year. (That film’s critics score was a rotten 48 percent, compared to 88 percent for Thunderbolts*.)

The unexpected spring bloom is currently underway at the box office — led by Ryan Coogler’s sleeper sensation Sinners — proves that people want the communal experience of watching a film together. Regarding Sinners, the Warner Bros. hit is enjoying a phenomenal third weekend, even if it falls to second place. The supernatural vampire pic continues to break all the rules and could fall just 26 percent this weekend to $33.7 million for a domestic tally north of $180 million.

Thunderbolts* is a pivotal moment for Marvel as it kicks off a new hoped-for franchise. Directed by Jake Schreier, the film brings together a band of dysfunctional outsiders — and lesser-known comic book characters — who discover their potential to be heroes when working together.

In addition to Pugh (Yelena Belova) and Stan (Bucky Barnes), the movie features Wyatt Russell (John Walker), David Harbour (Alexei Shostakov/Red Guardian), Lewis Pullman (Bob), Hannah John-Kamen (Ghost), Olga Kurylenko (Taskmaster) and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (CIA director Valentine Allegra de Fontaine).

“Florence Pugh and Sebastian Stan lead a gratifyingly fresh and soulful Marvel adventure,” The Hollywood Reporter‘s chief film critic David Rooney writes in his review. “While a handful of the characters and the actors playing them have appeared in previous entries, there’s a disarming freshness to this first-time assembly, not to mention something even more unexpected: heart. That’s due to an appealing ensemble cast and the new blood of a creative team with a distinctive take on the genre.”

In the film, Louis-Dreyfus’ villainous character has positioned a number of MCU loners and rejects to kill each other for her own nefarious reasons. But they instead decide to team up in response to the obvious setup, bringing along newcomer Bob, who suffers from a mental illness that has catastrophic consequences after he’s subjected to cruel experimentation.

Overseas, Thunderbolts* is opening everywhere timed to its release in North America, including in China.

No other major studio dared open opposite the Marvel event pic. Elsewhere, Alec Baldwin’s controversial-laced Rust finally opened in select theaters while also being available on premium VOD. The Western appears DOA — at least in cinemas — with an estimated opening gross of just $25,000 from 115 theaters.

The movie opens four years after Baldwin, who co-wrote and produced the film, accidentally discharged a weapon he thought only had blanks. A live round was in the chamber, and the bullet fatally wounded cinematographer Halyna Hutchins and also hit Souza. What followed was a dramatic, closely reported story that revealed on-set negligence and raised questions about industry practices around gun safety. Baldwin was charged with involuntary manslaughter. Still, his case was dismissed after new evidence came to light that Baldwin’s lawyers alleged had been buried by the prosecutors. The film’s prop armorer, Hannah Gutierrez-Reed, was also charged and is serving an 18-month prison sentence. 

May 3, 7:50 a.m. Updated with revised estimates.

This story was originally published May 2 at 7:50 a.m.